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The U.S. Adds More Jobs to Non-Farm Payroll

  • DAR Wong
  • 10 February 2020

MARKET OBSERVATIONS – 10 Feb 2020

 

The U.S. Adds More Jobs to Non-Farm Payroll

Fundamental Outlook   The U.S. Senate voted to acquit President Trump from the two impeachment articles in the final trial. On Friday, the U.S. non-farm payroll added 25,000 jobs in January while unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.6 percent.

China’s Caixin manufacturing index reported by Markit grew 51.1 in January and matched forecast. Analyst predict the economic growth in China will wane in coming months due to the coronavirus spreads. As of last Friday, the official statistics for coronavirus data has reported 27,657 and death toll at 723 in China. Fear of coronavirus epidemic has implicated many countries and deter the global tourism industry.

U.K. is moving into post-BREXT era while planning to negotiate for its trade policy with the European Union council. Generally, market economists foresee a tough time ahead for Britons due to shortage of labour, waning tourism and higher cost in food imports. Pound fell to below 1.2900 level on Friday from recent high 1.3200 top.

 

Technical Forecast   USD/JPY topped off 110.00 level just before weekend. This week, we forecast the trend is prone to fall and head south to 108.50 level. Breaking above 110.50 resistance needs to be controlled with risk management.

 

EUR/USD broke below strong support 1.1000 last week and settled at 1.0945 on Friday. This week, we reckon the trend might head down to test 1.0900 before rebound. Overall range may be tight from 1.0900 – 1.1000 region for time being.

 

GBP/USD has fallen just as quickly as it rose during the BREXIT celebration. Last week, the market dived in one-way trend and probably will slide further. Technically, we foresee the next support will be tested at 1.2750 – 1.2780 this week. Resistance will emerge at 1.3000 area.

 

Gold prices are still threading inside the range from USD1550 – USD1600 /oz. However, we have identified growing momentum in market and the trend could be rising soon. Breaking above USD1600 /oz level will indicate a new bullish trend. However, picking a long position now will need to observe the risk in case the prices violate beneath USD1550 /oz support.

 

WTI Crude prices traded in tight range around USD50 /barrel last week while teasing with this support area. Technically, this is a very crucial region lest giving way to the downtrend will lead to a dive in Crude prices. This week, we forecast the trend will regain strength but still thread within USD50 – USD54 /barrel. The final support at USD48 /barrel must safeguard the market in-lieu of recovery.

 

Silver prices have been consolidating in tight range from USD17.50 – USD18.00 /oz while waiting for clearer directional trend. This week, we project the market will entail yellow metal in higher prices. Piercing above USD18.00 /oz will attempt near to USD18.70 /oz region but diving below USD17.50 /oz will signal a reversal trend into bearish sentiment.

 

Crude Palm Oil (FCPO) Futures on Bursa Derivatives traded in recovery last week after market traders short covered their profits. In coming weeks, we should see stability in FCPO market as Crude prices hold on to their support grounds.  April20 Futures contract settled at RM2810 /MT on Friday after stood off RM2600 /MT as strong support. This week, the trend should be contained from RM2700 – RM2900 /MT in moderate movement.   

 

DAR Wong has 30 years of trading and hedging experiences in global financial markets. The opinion is solely at his own.  He can be reached at dar@pwforex.com


About the Author
DAR Wong (Singapore)
An international speaker with 27 years of trading experience in the global financial markets, DAR is a Market Master and author of “Living Daylight in Stock Market: Monetizing Your Profits in 8 Days”.

DAR Wong is an active market trader, registered fund manager, educator and author.He began his career in 1989 as an institutional Futures trader with Bank of America. DAR Wong specializes in trading global derivatives and financial markets. He has 26 years of experience accumulated through tenure with Bankers Trust, Barclays Bank, Citigroup (Smith Barney Shearson Inc) and as an independent trader.

DAR is the author of “8 Ways to Invest in China’s Emerging Market” and contributes frequently to regional media, including financial TV/Radio programmes, newspapers and magazines for professional traders and active investors.

He is a popular and sought after international speaker who has presented to financial professionals and investors throughout the region including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, China, Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Sri Lanka, India, South Korea, Laos, Vietnam, United Kingdom and Middle East (UAE).

DAR is registered with NASD (now known as FINRA) series 3 and 5 as approved by National Futures Association (NFA) of USA and holds a current portfolio as Fund Strategist and Advisor with Dektos Investment registered with Monetary Authority of Singapore.

DAR is profiled as “One of the most successful traders – Market Masters” in Brent Penfold’s bestselling book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading “. In January 2015, DAR was honored with Outstanding Award for International Financial Market Analysis granted by ASEAN Commerce (Thailand).

DAR is the author of "8 Waysto Invest in China's Emerging Market" and contributes frequently to regional media, including financial TV/Radio programmes, newspapers and magazines for professional tradersand active investors.1

He is a popular and sought after international speaker who has presented to financialprofessionals and inverstors throughout the region including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, China,Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Sri Lanka, India, South Korea, Laos, Vietnam, United Kingdom and Middle East(UAE).2


Year
2003 - Set up ASPRI to provide hedging advisory for corporate clients and training for financial professionals
2009 - Released first book “8 Ways to Invest in China’s Emerging Market”
2010 - Profiled as “one of the most successful traders – Market Masters” in Brent Penfold’s bestselling book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading” along with Larry Williams, Andrea Unger, Michael Cook, and Daryl Guppy etc
2011 - Received “Spirit of Enterprise”awarded by Singapore Management University in Singapore
2012 - Honored with Individual Diamond Career (Thailand) awardedby Royal Privy Council of Kingdom of Thailand
2013 - Appointed Vice Chairman of ASEAN-China Commerce Association and led a delegationtothe annual China-Asean Expo in Guangxi Province, China
2014 - Fund Manager cum Director in Dektos Investment Corporation registered with Monetary Authority of Singapore
2015 - Released new book “Living Daylight in Stock Market - Monetizing Your Profits in 8 Days” in January
2015 - Honored with Outstanding Award in International Financial Market Analysis awarded by ASEAN Commerce (Thailand)
2016 - Honored with Medal of Integrity by Royal Councilin Palace of Palembng, Indonesia

References

1.TV programs on ChannelNewsAsia (Singapore);Radio on 95.8 Capital (Singapore); Newspapers such as The Borneo Post (Malaysia), 资汇报 (Malaysia); Regional financial magazines such as The Analyst (India), 东盟商界(ASEAN, China), 资本杂志 (Malaysia).

2.Spoke at events for CME Group, Euronext LIFFE, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Singapore Exchange, Korea Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Thailand Futures Exchange, Jakarta Futures Exchange, Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Interactive Brokers, Xinhu Futures, Hangzhou Money Fair, China (Shenzhen) International Finance Expo, China (Guangzhou) International Finance Expo, Euromoney, CIMB, Maybank, RHB, UOB Bank, Asia Trader & Investor Convention, Global Rubber Conference, International Rubber Conference, Malaysia Rubber Board, International Rubber Research and Development Board,Malaysia Ministry of Agriculture, Rubber Industry Smallholders Development Authority, Vietnam Rubber Association, Cambodian Rubber Association, Bureau of Agriculture Research Philippines, Myanmar Rubber Planters & Producers Association etc.