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Dow Benchmark Reaches Historical High above 27,000 Level

  • DAR Wong
  • 15 July 2019

CURRENCY MARKET OBSERVATIONS – 15 June 2019

 

Fundamental Outlook   TheU.S. President Trump lambasts U.K. Prime Minister May and the ambassador to U.S. after the leakage of confidential emails quoting White House as “Uniquely Dysfunctional” and “Inept”.

The U.S. Treasury Department says the Government could be running out of budget in early September and asks for increasing the debt limit before lawmakers go for recess in September. Earlier this year, the Government was shut down for 35 days after funding lapsed.

President Trump expresses disappointment in China for not buying American crops after both countries met in G20 meeting and have agreed to hold the tariff unchanged during the truce period.

Last Thursday, Dow markets ended above 27,000 benchmark for the first time after FED chair Powell cited weaker overseas economic performance and trade tension may dampen the U.S. growth. Traders interpret the remark as a signal for impending rate cut in coming September.

China urges U.S. to halt sales of weaponry arms to Taiwan worth USD2.2 billion, rebuking it as an interference to the domestic security to the mainland.

China’s trade surplus increased USD51 billion in June and higher than previous month. Exports fell 1.3 percent from a year ago while imports dropped 7.3 percent in the same period. 

International Energy Agency (IEA) expects the resurgence of global supply glut in 2020, despite the recent agreement of OPEC and allies to hold onto 1,2 million barrels of production per day till March next year.

 

Technical Forecast   USD/JPY topped off 109.00 level last week and fell. This week, we forecast the trend will be resisted at 108.40 area and tend to fall further. Our target is identified at 107.00 region as the Dollar may weaken. It may be a good strategy to pick the short position upon pull-up retracement with risk control preset.

EUR/USD bounced off 1.1200 level while buyers have gradually entered market. this week, we foresee the trend will thread in sideways pattern while prone to more buying sentiment. Overall range is expected to move from 1.1200 – 1.1350 region.   

GBP/USD has shown strong support at 1.2440 area. This week, we predict the Pound will recover mainly due to lower Dollar. Overall range is expected from 1.2500 – 1.2700 region as the short-covering arises in market. International traders are still speculating the Pound as the outcome of new Prime Minister is waiting to be elected in British cabinet.

Gold prices have been trading sideways last week in mixed sentiment. Traders are speculating in market as rising expectation of FED fund rate cut in September. However, we are still adopting a neutral opinion as the trend is likely to narrow into the range of USD1390 – USD1420 /oz this week. The trend will only move into a new directional headway after it breaks beyond the aforementioned range.

WTI Crude prices broke above USD60 /barrel during last mid-week. Traders are becoming optimistic as Dollar begins to weaken and OPEC reiterates the determination to cut global supply. This week, we reckon the initial range will be constricted in narrowly from USD59 – USD61 /barrel until there is a breakthrough in either direction. Nevertheless, there is a higher chance of price ascension due to flight-out from Dollar. Breaking above USD61 /barrel might climb to USD64 /barrel as our next target.

Silver prices have been hovering around USD15.10 while confluent to the EMA200 line. Same as the yellow metal, we predict the Silver will stay in narrow sideways from USD15.00 – USD15.40 /oz until it pierces the constriction in either direction. Generally, the impending Dollar trend will be an essential catalyst to influence Gold and Silver inversely in coming weeks.

Crude Palm Oil (FCPO) Futures on Bursa Derivatives traded in small range but in sluggish sentiment. Market sentiment is weak in demand but prices are unwilling to slide further. August19 Futures closed at RM1944 /MT on Friday. This week, we predict the market will trade in recovery from RM1920 - RM1980 / MT in short-covering. However, long traders should abandon your view once the trend falls beneath RM1920 /MT level.

 

DAR Wong has 30 years of trading and hedging experiences in global financial markets. The opinion is solely at his own.  He can be reached at dar@pwforex.com


About the Author
DAR Wong (Singapore)
An international speaker with 27 years of trading experience in the global financial markets, DAR is a Market Master and author of “Living Daylight in Stock Market: Monetizing Your Profits in 8 Days”.

DAR Wong is an active market trader, registered fund manager, educator and author.He began his career in 1989 as an institutional Futures trader with Bank of America. DAR Wong specializes in trading global derivatives and financial markets. He has 26 years of experience accumulated through tenure with Bankers Trust, Barclays Bank, Citigroup (Smith Barney Shearson Inc) and as an independent trader.

DAR is the author of “8 Ways to Invest in China’s Emerging Market” and contributes frequently to regional media, including financial TV/Radio programmes, newspapers and magazines for professional traders and active investors.

He is a popular and sought after international speaker who has presented to financial professionals and investors throughout the region including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, China, Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Sri Lanka, India, South Korea, Laos, Vietnam, United Kingdom and Middle East (UAE).

DAR is registered with NASD (now known as FINRA) series 3 and 5 as approved by National Futures Association (NFA) of USA and holds a current portfolio as Fund Strategist and Advisor with Dektos Investment registered with Monetary Authority of Singapore.

DAR is profiled as “One of the most successful traders – Market Masters” in Brent Penfold’s bestselling book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading “. In January 2015, DAR was honored with Outstanding Award for International Financial Market Analysis granted by ASEAN Commerce (Thailand).

DAR is the author of "8 Waysto Invest in China's Emerging Market" and contributes frequently to regional media, including financial TV/Radio programmes, newspapers and magazines for professional tradersand active investors.1

He is a popular and sought after international speaker who has presented to financialprofessionals and inverstors throughout the region including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, China,Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Sri Lanka, India, South Korea, Laos, Vietnam, United Kingdom and Middle East(UAE).2


Year
2003 - Set up ASPRI to provide hedging advisory for corporate clients and training for financial professionals
2009 - Released first book “8 Ways to Invest in China’s Emerging Market”
2010 - Profiled as “one of the most successful traders – Market Masters” in Brent Penfold’s bestselling book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading” along with Larry Williams, Andrea Unger, Michael Cook, and Daryl Guppy etc
2011 - Received “Spirit of Enterprise”awarded by Singapore Management University in Singapore
2012 - Honored with Individual Diamond Career (Thailand) awardedby Royal Privy Council of Kingdom of Thailand
2013 - Appointed Vice Chairman of ASEAN-China Commerce Association and led a delegationtothe annual China-Asean Expo in Guangxi Province, China
2014 - Fund Manager cum Director in Dektos Investment Corporation registered with Monetary Authority of Singapore
2015 - Released new book “Living Daylight in Stock Market - Monetizing Your Profits in 8 Days” in January
2015 - Honored with Outstanding Award in International Financial Market Analysis awarded by ASEAN Commerce (Thailand)
2016 - Honored with Medal of Integrity by Royal Councilin Palace of Palembng, Indonesia

References

1.TV programs on ChannelNewsAsia (Singapore);Radio on 95.8 Capital (Singapore); Newspapers such as The Borneo Post (Malaysia), 资汇报 (Malaysia); Regional financial magazines such as The Analyst (India), 东盟商界(ASEAN, China), 资本杂志 (Malaysia).

2.Spoke at events for CME Group, Euronext LIFFE, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Singapore Exchange, Korea Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Thailand Futures Exchange, Jakarta Futures Exchange, Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Interactive Brokers, Xinhu Futures, Hangzhou Money Fair, China (Shenzhen) International Finance Expo, China (Guangzhou) International Finance Expo, Euromoney, CIMB, Maybank, RHB, UOB Bank, Asia Trader & Investor Convention, Global Rubber Conference, International Rubber Conference, Malaysia Rubber Board, International Rubber Research and Development Board,Malaysia Ministry of Agriculture, Rubber Industry Smallholders Development Authority, Vietnam Rubber Association, Cambodian Rubber Association, Bureau of Agriculture Research Philippines, Myanmar Rubber Planters & Producers Association etc.