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WTI Crude Falls to 7-Week Low

  • DAR Wong
  • 26 November 2018

Fundamental Outlook   The U.S. has a short week due to Thanksgiving holiday. Crude prices plunge into 2-month low as supply increases. U.K. is facing tough challenge as moving towards BREXIT deadline.

 

The U.S. housing starts rose 1.23 million in October while building permits expanded 1.26 million. Both matched the forecast.

 

Another report on American orders for durable goods slid 4.4 percent in October. Excluding transport equipment, core orders rose 0.1 percent. Both data are below forecast. Weekly claims increased to 224,000 in the week ended 17 November.

 

Last Wednesday, President Trump has released a press note stating the importance of maintaining bilateral ties with Saudi Arabia on current business relationship. The message hints the protection of national interest between the 2 countries over the murder of reporter Khashoggi which may involve Saudi’s royal family.

 

WTI Crude prices have fallen more than 30 percent since early October and hit USD50 /barrel before the weekend. President Trump has openly favored lower oil prices to capture inflation. The OPEC conglomerate will meet in Vienna on 6 Decembers and investors expect the leaders will discuss on curtail production.

 

German manufacturing index rose to 51.6 in November and slowest record since March 2016. Among the 19 nations, Markit reports the manufacturing index also slid to 51.5 gains, making a four months of consecutive decline.

 

Focus is laid on BREXIT negotiation between U.K. and European Commission which will finalize the major deal this week. So far, Prime Minister May is not getting support from opposition Labour party that criticizes her inefficiency in negotiation.

 

Technical Forecast   USD/JPY traded in V-pattern last week amid uncertainty. Technically, we have identified a very strong resistance at 114.00 – 114.50 area. This week, we reckon the trend is still prone to fall while target lands at 111.50 region.

 

EUR/USD has shown bear sentiment after topping off 1.1400 level last week. The trend is prone to decline further In coming week if the aforementioned resistance can remain intact. Downside target lies at 1.1200 with some bargain-hunting activity to be expected.

 

GBP/USD traded in flat patterns below 1.29 benchmark last week as traders watch the coming BREXIT outcome. This week, we expect some whipsaw due to erratic market movements with resistances identified at R1 – 1.2900 and R2 – 1.3100 region. Downside support lies at 1.2700, which failing to hold the bears will open to a new selling rush in market.

 

Disclaimer: This article is written for general information only. No liability by the writer, publisher or any third party involved in the distribution of this work.

DAR Wong is a professional in financial industry based in Singapore with 29 years of global trading experiences. The expression is solely at his own. You may reach him at dar@pwforex.com


About the Author
DAR Wong (Singapore)
An international speaker with 27 years of trading experience in the global financial markets, DAR is a Market Master and author of “Living Daylight in Stock Market: Monetizing Your Profits in 8 Days”.

DAR Wong is an active market trader, registered fund manager, educator and author.He began his career in 1989 as an institutional Futures trader with Bank of America. DAR Wong specializes in trading global derivatives and financial markets. He has 26 years of experience accumulated through tenure with Bankers Trust, Barclays Bank, Citigroup (Smith Barney Shearson Inc) and as an independent trader.

DAR is the author of “8 Ways to Invest in China’s Emerging Market” and contributes frequently to regional media, including financial TV/Radio programmes, newspapers and magazines for professional traders and active investors.

He is a popular and sought after international speaker who has presented to financial professionals and investors throughout the region including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, China, Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Sri Lanka, India, South Korea, Laos, Vietnam, United Kingdom and Middle East (UAE).

DAR is registered with NASD (now known as FINRA) series 3 and 5 as approved by National Futures Association (NFA) of USA and holds a current portfolio as Fund Strategist and Advisor with Dektos Investment registered with Monetary Authority of Singapore.

DAR is profiled as “One of the most successful traders – Market Masters” in Brent Penfold’s bestselling book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading “. In January 2015, DAR was honored with Outstanding Award for International Financial Market Analysis granted by ASEAN Commerce (Thailand).

DAR is the author of "8 Waysto Invest in China's Emerging Market" and contributes frequently to regional media, including financial TV/Radio programmes, newspapers and magazines for professional tradersand active investors.1

He is a popular and sought after international speaker who has presented to financialprofessionals and inverstors throughout the region including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, China,Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Sri Lanka, India, South Korea, Laos, Vietnam, United Kingdom and Middle East(UAE).2


Year
2003 - Set up ASPRI to provide hedging advisory for corporate clients and training for financial professionals
2009 - Released first book “8 Ways to Invest in China’s Emerging Market”
2010 - Profiled as “one of the most successful traders – Market Masters” in Brent Penfold’s bestselling book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading” along with Larry Williams, Andrea Unger, Michael Cook, and Daryl Guppy etc
2011 - Received “Spirit of Enterprise”awarded by Singapore Management University in Singapore
2012 - Honored with Individual Diamond Career (Thailand) awardedby Royal Privy Council of Kingdom of Thailand
2013 - Appointed Vice Chairman of ASEAN-China Commerce Association and led a delegationtothe annual China-Asean Expo in Guangxi Province, China
2014 - Fund Manager cum Director in Dektos Investment Corporation registered with Monetary Authority of Singapore
2015 - Released new book “Living Daylight in Stock Market - Monetizing Your Profits in 8 Days” in January
2015 - Honored with Outstanding Award in International Financial Market Analysis awarded by ASEAN Commerce (Thailand)
2016 - Honored with Medal of Integrity by Royal Councilin Palace of Palembng, Indonesia

References

1.TV programs on ChannelNewsAsia (Singapore);Radio on 95.8 Capital (Singapore); Newspapers such as The Borneo Post (Malaysia), 资汇报 (Malaysia); Regional financial magazines such as The Analyst (India), 东盟商界(ASEAN, China), 资本杂志 (Malaysia).

2.Spoke at events for CME Group, Euronext LIFFE, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Singapore Exchange, Korea Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Thailand Futures Exchange, Jakarta Futures Exchange, Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Interactive Brokers, Xinhu Futures, Hangzhou Money Fair, China (Shenzhen) International Finance Expo, China (Guangzhou) International Finance Expo, Euromoney, CIMB, Maybank, RHB, UOB Bank, Asia Trader & Investor Convention, Global Rubber Conference, International Rubber Conference, Malaysia Rubber Board, International Rubber Research and Development Board,Malaysia Ministry of Agriculture, Rubber Industry Smallholders Development Authority, Vietnam Rubber Association, Cambodian Rubber Association, Bureau of Agriculture Research Philippines, Myanmar Rubber Planters & Producers Association etc.


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